{"id":4703,"date":"2020-05-15T10:21:42","date_gmt":"2020-05-15T10:21:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/?p=4703"},"modified":"2020-05-15T10:21:42","modified_gmt":"2020-05-15T10:21:42","slug":"system-carter-ma-8-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/2020\/05\/15\/system-carter-ma-8-21\/","title":{"rendered":"System: Carter MA 8 &#8211; 21"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>Abstract<\/h1>\n<p>In his book &#8220;Mastering the trade&#8221;, John Carter proposes a simple system based on the moving averages of 8 and 21.<\/p>\n<p>I have implemented the basis of this system and I have changed some behaviors:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>I added the <a href=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/2019\/11\/05\/squeeze-momentum-indicator-by-lazybear\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Squeeze momentum indicator<\/a> to filter the positive trend and reduce the draw downs.<\/li>\n<li>I have not added any stop-loss.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I have build this system on Tradingview and I have done some back-testing in 3 periods to see how it works.<\/p>\n<h1>The system<\/h1>\n<pre>The system code is this one:\r\n\r\n\/\/ This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https:\/\/mozilla.org\/MPL\/2.0\/\r\n\/\/ \u00a9 joapen\r\n\r\n\/\/@version=4\r\nstrategy(\"Carter EMA(8\/21)\", overlay=true)\r\n\r\n\/\/ === BACKTEST RANGE ===\r\nFromMonth = input(defval = 1, title = \"From Month\", minval = 1)\r\nFromDay   = input(defval = 1, title = \"From Day\", minval = 1)\r\nFromYear  = input(defval = 2020, title = \"From Year\", minval = 2000)\r\nToMonth   = input(defval = 12, title = \"To Month\", maxval = 12)\r\nToDay     = input(defval = 31, title = \"To Day\", maxval = 31)\r\nToYear    = input(defval = 2020, title = \"To Year\", maxval = 2020)\r\n\r\n\/\/\r\n\/\/ SQZMOM\r\n\/\/\r\nlength = input(14, title=\"BB Length\")\r\nmult = input(2.0,title=\"BB MultFactor\")\r\nlengthKC=input(20, title=\"KC Length\")\r\nmultKC = input(1.5, title=\"KC MultFactor\")\r\n\r\nuseTrueRange = input(true, title=\"Use TrueRange (KC)\", type=input.bool)\r\n\r\n\/\/ Calculate BB\r\nsource = close\r\nbasis = sma(source, length)\r\ndev = multKC * stdev(source, length)\r\nupperBB = basis + dev\r\nlowerBB = basis - dev\r\n\r\n\/\/ Calculate KC\r\nma = sma(source, lengthKC)\r\nrange = useTrueRange ? tr : (high - low)\r\nrangema = sma(range, lengthKC)\r\nupperKC = ma + rangema * multKC\r\nlowerKC = ma - rangema * multKC\r\n\r\nsqzOn  = (lowerBB &gt; lowerKC) and (upperBB &lt; upperKC)\r\nsqzOff = (lowerBB &lt; lowerKC) and (upperBB &gt; upperKC)\r\nnoSqz  = (sqzOn == false) and (sqzOff == false)\r\n\r\nval = linreg(source  -  avg(avg(highest(high, lengthKC), lowest(low, lengthKC)),sma(close,lengthKC)), lengthKC,0)\r\n\r\n\/\/ lime green  red marron\r\nsqzLong = iff( val &gt; 0, iff( val &gt; nz(val[1]), true, false), iff( val &lt; nz(val[1]), false, true))\r\n\/\/ Plots\r\nplot(upperBB, title=\"BB\", color=color.green)\r\nplot(ema(close,8), title=\"EMA(8)\", color=color.orange)\r\nplot(ema(close,21), title=\"EMA(21)\", color=color.red)\r\n\r\nlongCondition = (ema(close, 8)&gt; sma(close, 21)) and (close &lt; ema(close, 8) and sqzLong) and time &gt; timestamp(FromYear, FromMonth, FromDay, 00, 00) and time &lt; timestamp(ToYear, ToMonth, ToDay, 23, 59)\r\nalertcondition(longCondition, title='Long', message='long!!!')\r\nif (longCondition)\r\n    strategy.entry(\"My Long Entry Id\", strategy.long)\r\n\r\nshortCondition = (close &gt; upperBB ) or (ema(close, 8)&lt; sma(close, 21) or val&lt;0) and time &lt; timestamp(ToYear, ToMonth, ToDay, 23, 59)\r\nalertcondition(shortCondition, title='Short', message='short!!!')\r\nif (shortCondition)\r\n    strategy.entry(\"My Short Entry Id\", strategy.short)<\/pre>\n<h1>Back-testing conditions<\/h1>\n<ul>\n<li>Amount = 100.000$<\/li>\n<li>Commission = 0$<\/li>\n<li>List of companies: fix list of companies I know with different behaviors, volatility and industries: BEN, TROW, CTVA, AEMD, GMRE, WBA, CVS, MO, DT, GE.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Quality of the samples:<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Minimum around 200 trades to consider a good amount of cases.<\/li>\n<li>Share Ratio &gt; 1<\/li>\n<li>Profit Factor &gt; 2<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h1>Back-testing results for first date range<\/h1>\n<ul>\n<li>Date range = 1\/1\/2020 &#8211; 13\/05\/2020<\/li>\n<li>Time frame = 5 minutes<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Volatility during this period have been so high:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/2020\/05\/15\/system-carter-ma-8-21\/vix-2020-05-15\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-4709\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-4709\" src=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/VIX-2020-05-15-1024x364.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"584\" height=\"208\" srcset=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/VIX-2020-05-15-1024x364.jpg 1024w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/VIX-2020-05-15-300x107.jpg 300w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/VIX-2020-05-15-768x273.jpg 768w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/VIX-2020-05-15-1536x546.jpg 1536w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/VIX-2020-05-15-500x178.jpg 500w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/VIX-2020-05-15.jpg 1631w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 584px) 100vw, 584px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/2020\/05\/15\/system-carter-ma-8-21\/carter-bt-2020-05-13\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-4704\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4704\" src=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-2020-05-13.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"821\" height=\"331\" srcset=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-2020-05-13.jpg 821w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-2020-05-13-300x121.jpg 300w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-2020-05-13-768x310.jpg 768w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-2020-05-13-500x202.jpg 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 821px) 100vw, 821px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h1>Back-testing results for second date range<\/h1>\n<ul>\n<li>Date range = 1\/1\/2019 &#8211; 13\/05\/2019<\/li>\n<li>Time frame = 15 minutes (Tradingview does not enable me to do it in 5 minutes)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/2020\/05\/15\/system-carter-ma-8-21\/carter-bt-2019-05-13\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-4707\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4707\" src=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-2019-05-13.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"819\" height=\"328\" srcset=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-2019-05-13.jpg 819w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-2019-05-13-300x120.jpg 300w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-2019-05-13-768x308.jpg 768w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-2019-05-13-500x200.jpg 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h1>Back-testing results for bio companies in 2020<\/h1>\n<ul>\n<li>Date range = 1\/1\/2020 &#8211; 13\/05\/2020<\/li>\n<li>Time frame = 5 minutes<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/2020\/05\/15\/system-carter-ma-8-21\/carter-bt-bio-2020-05-13\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-4708\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4708\" src=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-bio-2020-05-13.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"818\" height=\"301\" srcset=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-bio-2020-05-13.jpg 818w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-bio-2020-05-13-300x110.jpg 300w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-bio-2020-05-13-768x283.jpg 768w, http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/carter-bt-bio-2020-05-13-500x184.jpg 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 818px) 100vw, 818px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h1>Conclusions<\/h1>\n<h2>15\/05\/2020<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>I have to improve or discard this system.<\/li>\n<li>Check when the market trend is better.<\/li>\n<li>Check when volatility is lower.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Abstract In his book &#8220;Mastering the trade&#8221;, John Carter proposes a simple system based on the moving averages of 8 and 21. I have implemented the basis of this system and I have changed some behaviors: I added the Squeeze momentum indicator to filter the positive trend and reduce the draw downs. I have not &#8230; <a title=\"System: Carter MA 8 &#8211; 21\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"http:\/\/joapen.com\/blog\/2020\/05\/15\/system-carter-ma-8-21\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about System: Carter MA 8 &#8211; 21\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[105],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-trading"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>System: Carter MA 8 - 21 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Abstract In his book &quot;Mastering the trade&quot;, John Carter proposes a simple system based on the moving averages of 8 and 21. 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