Quantitative trading, Ernie Chang

This book contains basic concepts and approach (step by step) for does that want to initiate themselves on Quantitative trading. The focus is on statistical arbitrage trading, that deals with the simplest financial instruments: stocks, futures, and sometimes currencies.

The chapters cover the steps a trader should take:

  1. The Whats, Whos, and Whys of Quantitative Trading,
  2. Fishing for Ideas,
  3. Backtesting,
  4. Setting Up Your Business,
  5. Execution Systems, (reading it now)

You can follow the author blog that contains further valuable information and some nice examples.

A short list of common pitfalls related to how the back-test program is written:

  1. Survivor-ship bias: data does not contain companies that have fallen bankruptcy.
  2. Look-Ahead Bias: this phenomenon happens when you are using information that was available only at a time ahead of the instant the trade was made. For instance, “Buy when the stock is within 1 percent of the day’s low”.
  3. Data-Snooping Bias: the use too much parameters that make you build an over-optimized model. A rule of thumb: 5 parameters.
  4. Sample size: you need enough data to back test, how much? As a rule of thumb, let’s assume that the number of data points needed for optimizing your parameters is equal to 252 times the number of free parameters your model has. For instance, you define a daily trading model with three parameters, then you should have at least three years’ worth of back-test data with daily prices.
  5. Out-of-Sample Testing : divide your historical data into 2 parts. Use the first part for training, and keep the second part to test the resulting model.

PMP Certification

I passed my PMP exam this month.

I read the PMBoK, I did the virtual led training courses offered by the company I work and I did a lot of exams, reviewing concepts and learning the details of the exam reviewing answers and explanations.

There is a good bunch of exams on the internet, and the more similar ones I found to the exam I did were:

http://www.oliverlehmann.com/pmp-self-test/75-free-questions.htm

http://www.oliverlehmann.com/contents/free-downloads/175_PMP_Sample_Questions.pdf

PMP Exam Prep Questions, Answers, & Explanations: 1000+ PMP Practice Questions with Detailed Solutions by Christopher Scordo (4-Nov-2009)– 1600 questions by Christopher Scordo.

Now thinking about the next certification or training course to take. Any suggestion?

Thinking, Fast and Slow

After have read The Undoing Project I was investigating about some of the books published by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. Finally I found this Thinking, Fast and Slow.

This psychology essay goes chapter by chapter decomposing the different ways the mind works, doing it in plain English. Chapters are short and concentrated on an specific aspect and contains very good experiments that helps you to understand the human behavior.

I see so many of the things on myself and I see so many of these behaviors reflected on people when I see TV advertisement, when I see people on a supermarket, when I read newspaper, etc.

thinking-fast-slow

The undoing project

This book is making me to think about some habits and false concepts we use to fall in a daily basis. There are some interesting parts of the book for re-read from time to time.

People regretted what they have done, and what they wished they hadn’t done, far more than what they had not done and perhaps should have. The pain that is experienced when the loss is caused by an act that modified the status quo is significantly greater than the pain that is experienced when the decision led to the retention of the status quo.

 

When choosing between sure things and gambles, people’s desire to avoid loss exceeded their desire to secure pain.

 

People did not chose between things. They chose between descriptions of things. Economists, and anyone else who wanted to believe that human beings were rational, could rationalize, or try to rationalize, loss aversion.

 

The endowment effect was a psychological idea with economic consequences. People attached some strange extra value to what ever they happened to own, simply because they owned it, and so proved surprisingly reluctant to part with their possessions, or endowments, even when trading them made economic sense.

 

The emotions of unrealized possibility: these emotions could be described using simple math. Their intensity was a product of two variables: the desirability of the alternative and the possibility of the alternative.

 

Man Boobs

Daryl Morey joined the Rockets as General Manager in 2006 with the idea of launching data-driven decision-making on the team. This included the draft elections.
In 2007 they already had their first model. His first choice was a 22-year-old boy who surpassed the rest in that model.
A picture of this guy was found with a baby face and a , fluffy body … and someone from the scout team nicknamed him Man Boobs.

Man Boobs here, Man Boobs there … At the end, Morey doubted and was not brave enough to push his model in front of the traditional scouting methods, his team of scouters influenced enough.

Grizzlies choose him later in the 48th position. Man Boobs was Marc Gasol.

Morey banned the motes in the selections of players and the following year relied on his model.

Collected from the book “The Undoing Project”, by Michael Lewis.

El plan revolucionario

Este libro de nutrición rompe con muchos dogmas adquiridos por la sociedad occidental de nuestros tiempos. Habla sobre como mirar la alimentación como una parte más de nuestra vida, recordarnos de donde venimos y como el marketing nos ha cambiado los hábitos, revisar cada cosa buena y mala que una acción tiene sobre tu cuerpo, volver a los conceptos básicos…

No sé si el autor es consciente de conceptos de medicina china, pero hay mucho de ello en el libro. Habla de energía, de las relaciones del cerebro, las hormonas y el estómago, de estrés, de ejercicio…

El libro va de lo teórico a lo práctico, estando esto último muy bien ajustado a la vida media de un español medio. La aportación de un plan básico y otro más detallado creo que es muy acertada. Las reglas nemotécnicas que ofrece son muy acertadas y de tanto repetirlas en el libro no se te olvidan.

Coincido con la mayoría de los principios que aconseja, pero hay algunos hábitos, como la ingesta tan alta de carne con la que no estoy deacuerdo.

Comer es algo que hacemos de por vida, aprender de nutrición es siempre algo que nunca está de más. A todo el que me ha preguntado si lo recomiendo leer, le he dicho que ojee el blog, que lea sobre los aspectos básicos allí y que si le gusta que lo compre, que se lea el libro y que descubra todo lo que hay detrás (es más que un libro).

el-plan-revolucionario

Diario de invierno

Con Javier en casa y el resto del jaleo, es complicado sacar tiempo para leer. Dormir es una necesidad básica de la que me cuesta prescindir. Eso si, en esta semana de diciembre con viajes a Madrid y Barcelona, me dio tiempo a leer este diario lleno de reflexiones y anécdotas.

Diario-de-invierno-de-Paul-Auster

Blockchain, learning about the basis

I have started to read about this topic and I cannot stop reading articles and things related to it. I am starting from the basis to understand the concepts and how all this will change the paradigm of our lives.

I have started with this book:

La-economia-de-blockchainIt’s in Spanish and they do a good review of the theory of blockchain and examples to understand the finance and technical basis. Then there is a good review of the applications that we have today in the market. If you are reading the book after 2016, it’s clear the application landscape can be so much different.