Los mapas de Wardley

Que son los mapas de Wardley

Los mapas de Wardley es una técnica que lo ayuda a examinar un entorno dado, identificar los próximos cambios que van a ocurrir y ayuda a elegir adecuadamente las acciones a tomar. Al examinar qué se necesita, qué componentes se utilizarán, cuáles son sus dependencias y características, se puede construir una representación visual de su mundo, jugar a juegos hipotéticos y elegir su dirección y las mejores acciones para apoyarlo.

Hace poco me di cuenta que llevo usando esta técnica desde 2013 y que conozco los planteamientos básicos de su uso, pero que echo en falta dos cosas fundamentales:

  • Ahondar más en los detalles de la técnica.
  • La inexistencia de una comunidad en español que conozca los mapas de Wardley.

Con ello, me he propuesto traducir parte del contenido de los mapas de Wardley al español, para tratar de mejorar los dos puntos mencionados anteriormente.

Principios y partes de la traducción

  1. El libro, que originalmente está en publicado en medium lo trataré de traducir lo más cercana posible al original, solo adaptando situaciones personales y contenido relevante para aprender sobre esta técnica.
  2. Mapas de ejemplo, herramientas, otros recursos: documentaré algunas cosas que existen e iré añadiendo cosas conforme las vaya usando (mi falta de tiempo es un impedimento importante, ….bueno, como a todos).

Actividades (Kanban)

1.- A realizar

  1. Buscar plug-in sobre rutas o completar cursos.
  2. Buscar plugín sobre conversaciones.

2.- En progreso

  1. Crear contenido y traducir el libro (aquí).
  2. Divulgar la página por las redes y contactos.

3.- Completadas

  1. Hablar con Simon acerca de llevar a cabo este proyecto (hecho).
  2. Crear un entorno donde colgar la documentación (aquí).

Tabla de contenido del libro hasta ahora (Simon continúa escribiendo capítulos)

  • Licencia (hecho)
  • Capítulo 1 – Al estar perdido (hecho)
  • Capítulo 2 – Encontrar un camino ( hecho)
  • Capítulo 3 – Explorando el mapa (hecho)
  • Capítulo 4 – Doctrina (hecho)
  • Capítulo 5 – La jugaday la decisión de actuar (hecho)
  • Capítulo 6 – Comenzando usted mismo (hecho)
  • Capítulo 7 – Encontrar un nuevo propósito (en progreso)
  • Capítulo 8 – Manteniendo a raya a los lobos (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 9 – Trazando el futuro (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 10 – ¡No esperaba eso! (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 11 – Una mezcla heterogénea de lo poco útil (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 12 – El escenario (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 13 – Algo malo viene por aquí (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 14 – Sé fiel a ti mismo (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 15 – Sobre la práctica de la planificación de escenarios (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 16 – Super Looper (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 17 – Hasta el infinito y más allá (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 18 – Más por menos (a realizar)

 

Recomendaciones?

Si tienes alguna recomendación sobre lo que debería hacer o mejorar, dímelo.

Year 3, Learning about Raspberry PI and Wardley Maps Q3

A change of content

I feel I need to rest of the financial investing journey I’m doing. I have been thinking about an alternative and I found out that I have a Raspberry Pi in a box that I have still not used. So for this quarter I will try to learn about what can I do with it.

A friend that is going to help me with the Raspberry told me that it will not take so much time, so I should look for other things to learn. I’m not sure about it, but let’s start with something and let’s look for another initiative, just in case.

The alternative learning thread will be focused on Wardley maps. I have used for a long time (I started with them in 2013), and I have the feeling that in the Spanish word it does not have more impact because the language is still a high barrier for some people. I have been thinking about it since some while ago: it’s to translate Wardley maps content into Spanish.

Year 3, Quarter 3

As usual these are the goals for this quarter, following the V2MOM model:

For the Raspberry Pi:

  • Vision: start using the Raspberry Pi.
  • Values: have fun, learn a lot, do practices and more practices.
  • Method: set it up, find a couple of use cases and make them work.
  • Obstacles: Time.
  • Measures:
    • Install OS on Raspberry PI.
    • To have a couple of use cases that are implemented at home: pi-hole and another one to be defined.

For the Wardley maps translation:

  • Vision: have a place with Wardley maps content in Spanish.
  • Values: have fun, learn the details of the different chapters published.
  • Method: set up a place,translate and adapt the content when required, publish some of the maps I did.
  • Obstacles: Time.
  • Measures:
    • Build a place to document about Wardley maps.
    • To have at least 5 chapters ready for publishing.
    • Complete the initial content of the website.
    • Add at least 3 maps I have done to Spanish.

Death line = 30/September/2020

Results (October, 2020)

  • Raspberry PI.
    • Install OS on Raspberry PI (not done).
    • Pi-hole up and running (not done).
    • and another one to be defined (not done).
  • Wardley maps (specific updates here (in Spanish) ).
    • Build a place to document about Wardley maps (done).
    • To have at least 5 chapters ready for publishing (done).
    • Complete the initial content of the website (done).
    • Add at least 3 maps I have done to Spanish (done).

Value Line Geometric Index

The american market (I focus on S&P 500) has recuperated 40% of the value since March where it touch the minimum value.

It’s an impressive “come back” while the macro economy data is showing terrible numbers about unemployment, consumption, industrial production….

The economy and the market are driving themselves in the opposite direction. So, so many questions come to my mind:

  • Is the market crazy?
  • is the market completely disconnected from the economy?
  • are we looking at the right numbers?

Well, Mr. Market does what he wants, and we cannot do anything about it. Disconnected from the economy? I do not think so, maybe there is a bubble, but sooner or later it will adjust. Well, my answers are poor, and it’s basically because I have not a concrete answer to these questions.

The last question: “are we looking at the right numbers?” makes me to go to Value Line Geometric Index

Value Line Geometric Index

This index includes all the american market. For more information the Wikipedia.

“All companies in the Value Line Composite Index are publicly listed on one of the major exchanges listed below. The number of companies in the Value Line Composite Index fluctuates based on factors including: the addition or delisting of the companies on the exchanges themselves, mergers, acquisitions, bankruptcies, and the coverage decisions made by Value Line for the Value Line Composite Index. Value Line’s decisions as to which companies to include are undertaken with the intention to create a broad representation of the North American equity market.

Exchanges in The Value Line Composite Index are:

  • American Stock Exchange
  • NASDAQ
  • New York Stock Exchange
  • Toronto Stock Exchange

Well, comparing the VALUG (blue) with SPX (red), you can see that Value Line Geometric Index is more closed to the reality that I had in mind that is that we still have not recuperated.

If we look the comparison of the indexes from February 12th, the result is that draw-down is bigger for VALUG, and that the recuperation is below than S&P:

Update on 07/August/2020

  1. The Value line has crossed over the 200 days SMA for the second time. This is an interesting point of intersection.
  2. This event happened in June and the market reacted for few days. These days the FED did not use big amount of money on POMO.

To do: I will add this index to my reviews, I have first to learn from it.

Counting drilling rigs

Background

I have the purpose of counting US drilling rigs that are producing oil. I understand so many of them are closing and the cost to re-open them should be considerable. With the amount of oil in the market and the future prices sinking into even negative values, I want to challenge my self if I can improve the way to analyze and predict when the barrel price is going to bull again.

US drilling regions

These are the main drilling regions in US.

  • Permian
  • Anakardo,
  • Appalachia,
  • Niobrara
  • Eagle Ford
  • Haynesville
  • Bakken

Sources of data

I only found a place that offers directly the number of opened drilling rigs in a chart. And it’s just for Oklahoma (Anakardo). It’s this one: https://ycharts.com/indicators/oklahoma_inland_rotary_rigs

Some other sources:

  • List from TCI Business Capital: it only provides data from time to time.
  • List from North Dakota: just for this region, which belongs to Bakken region
  • Quandl.com: it has no data on active drilling rigs.

to do: find more data.

 

 

 

SPX Vs DIX 2020 follow-up

I have started to follow-up the Dark Index Vs SPX, as one of the indicators I follow during the decisions. Right now it’s in test mode, as I have to learn about what happens and see if I can build some type of correlation that contributes in a positive way to my trading actions.

So, let’s start.

First chart (January 1st – April 30st)

When DIX is up, it’s assumed the whales are buying in a silent way. Some trends:

  • February 27th
  • March 24th

Second chart (January 1st – June 8th)

  • Strong concentration of buyers starting on May 21st and continuing during 1 week (over 50%).
  • SPX was in a channel (2800 -2950), between April 14 and May 26th.

GEX review on June 8th

  • Gamma Exposure Index < 0 was a risk zone. Started on February 24th.
  • During the channel (2800-3000) no clear behavior.

GEX review on July 8th

So much ups and downs (accelerate and brake).

DIX review on July 8th

Nothing to add here related to DIX during June.

DIX review on August 8th

  • Channel 3.000-3.200 has been broken, now working between 3.200-3.400.
  • Dark Index moving around 45%.

GEX review on August 8th

  • 2 strong “push” to the accelerator put the S&P over 3.300.

Coronavirus and S&P

It is the first time that I have a situation like this while studying indicators like these ones, so I am going to document what is going on.

The starting snapshot

4 weeks after the historical highest SPX when was at 3400 points this is what happens.

Initial view

  1. The McClellan oscillator seems to decrease the fall, in theory it begins to draw a divergence, which to me it still needs a few days to confirm.
  2. The “strong hand” sales volume is supposed to be decreasing, but the SPX is still down.

Things to watch:

  1. The US senate, congress and the FED agree;
  2. the impact of the COVID-19 in US.

Update 08/April/2020

  • SPX climbed from 2250 to 2789.
  • McClellan turned green, but ADX is still not on a positive trend.
  • Big buyers are still selling.

Update on 08/May/2020

  • A channel has been build between 2800 and 3000
  • ADX is positive and McClellan keeps being green.
  • Buy buyers are still selling, but closed to the buy line.
  • Fed continues sending money to the market, it’s incredible.

Update on 08/June/2020

  • Market flying since May 27th over 3000. It’s when big buyers started to buy strongly.
  • All green.
  • Fed continues sending money to the market.

Update on 08/July/2020

  • Now a channel between 3000-3150 is build.
  • McClellan always around zero and red is predominant.
  • Market breadth is still positive, no news.

Update on 08/August/2020

  • The channel between 3000-3200 has been passed and now is over it.
  • McClellan always around zero and red is predominant.
  • Market breadth is still positive, no news.

Big buyers are buying consistenly:

To be updated soon…

My triple screens layers (by Alexander Elder)

In the book The New Trading for a Living,  Alexander Elder describes an useful and mechanic way to analyze and filter opportunities for investing: triple screen.

The 3 layers have a main purpose these are:

  • Top screen                 = censorship purpose.
  • Intermediate screen   = determine if there is an opportunity
  • Bottom screen           = refine the short

What do I check on each screen?

Top screen

  • Time frame = Weekly and daily
  • Support and resistance
  • Konkorde indicator (by blai5)
  • EMA(200), EMA(50), EMA(20)
  • Gatillo indicator (by Miguel Larrañaga)

Intermediate screen

  • Time frame = daily
  • Bollinger bands
  • EMA(200), EMA(50), EMA(20)
  • Volume Price Confirmation Indicator (by LazyBear)
  • Squeeze Momentum Indicator (or “SQZMOM” by LazyBear)

Bottom screen

  • Time frame = hour and 15 minutes
  • Double Bollinger Bands (by blai5)
  • Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
  • Gatillo indicator (by Miguel Larrañaga) (being evaluated).

Continuous improvement (to do list)

things that I’m evaluating or I need to do:

 

 

Actions to promote the book

This is a to do list for the promotion of the book.

V2MOM

As usual these are the goals following the V2MOM model:

  • Vision: promote DREAM methodology for savings and investment.
  • Values: have fun, learn a lot, great design take care of visual engagement.
  • Method: Build a blog and content with all ideas, tools, mechanisms schemes…
  • Obstacles: Time.
  • Measures:
    • Have the site ready for people that are willing to use the materials.

Not started,

Working on,

  • Participate regularly in forums or groups.

Done,

  • Build a blog.
  • Create a logo.
  • Look for a template for the flyers.
  • Reorganize the steps to learn.
  • Create a logo and banners.
  • Add advertisement, with no big impact.

Notes