Coronavirus and S&P

It is the first time that I have a situation like this while studying indicators like these ones, so I am going to document what is going on.

The starting snapshot

4 weeks after the historical highest SPX when was at 3400 points this is what happens.

Initial view

  1. The McClellan oscillator seems to decrease the fall, in theory it begins to draw a divergence, which to me it still needs a few days to confirm.
  2. The “strong hand” sales volume is supposed to be decreasing, but the SPX is still down.

Things to watch:

  1. The US senate, congress and the FED agree;
  2. the impact of the COVID-19 in US.

To be updated soon…

Boldgrid

Boldgrid makes it easy to create beautiful websites on WordPress. The suite of tools and plugins lets you build and manage professional websites.

With BoldGrid’s free website builder you can instantly launch WordPress in the cloud and test building out a free fully functional website.

BoldGrid is powered by WordPress so you can take your website with you to any web host (this is what I did).

Templates and a builder plug-in that enables you to compose the pages and blog entries with infinite ways or shapes.

SEO capabilities to enable the right population of tags, key words and other aspects that are in benefit of being found,

The result?

I created a simple blog for posting pictures of the kids, so family is up to date of what’s going on with kids.

http://www.joapen.com/jepc/

Utility Stocks-2020

This article, titled as “Top 10 Utility Stocks For Dividend Growth And Income”, show a table with data of the selected companies. The analysis is very rich and didactic about the data he collects and how he assess it.

To me this table is very good summary. I was thinking about how to retrieve data from different list of companies and have a quick look on dividend growth indicators in a semi-automatic way.

So, how could I do it?

Sources of data

Google Sheets enables you to retrieve data from their page with a nice set of formulas, it’s very easy to retrieve data, the problem is that the amount of data is very limited.

Then I went to https://www.finviz.com/ and I discovered that you can take all different parameters of a given company.

Last but not least, I missed some data, so I went to yahoo finance and I got what I missed.

The sheet

I have build a sheet that tries to:

  • Build quickly a numeric analysis of a list of companies (as in this example utilities companies).
  • Be able to define the data I want to analyze using the map of finviz.com and other related data from yahoo finance.
  • Be able to adequate 5 – 8 indicators oriented to whatever you want to analyze: fundamental analysis on growth, technical analysis, fundamental analysis on revenue and gross margin…

The outcome

This google sheets document contains the analysis I did on the same list of utilities companies.

It’s not as complete and professional analysis as the one done by Eric Landis, but it’s a quick way to discard companies and then focus on a short list.

Things to improve

Some of the parameters do not refresh always in the right way, so from time to time you have to review the tables where the data come from: specially from yahoo finance.

 

 

The Dividend Investing Resource Center

This is a must link I am using since some time, and I wanted to keep it outside of my laptop.

https://www.dripinvesting.org/Tools/Tools.asp

I love the excel with the updated data, specially:

  • The table of changes of the major dividend players, specially those that are “out” of the dividend kings or aristocrats lists.
  • The fact that is in excel, that enables me easily to have the Chowder number.

 

Robinhood App is down

Today, March 2nd 2020 Robinhood application is down. One interesting day to trade as volumes are up, so I cannot do it.

Yes, fees are small, and they are covered by the acceptance of the terms of use, but by this reason I operate with this broker only the R&D portfolio.

Renault

I started this positions some months ago, I read about the company, about the valuation and how things were running in the sector, so I decided to open a long position on it.

After some months with 3 long events the margin was so bad that was over the limit to the protection of my portfolio, so I short it with loss.

Bad move, let’s continue with the method and improving it.

 

 

Trade on Lyft

Abstract

  • Reason to Long = Fall after Q4 results. Results fine, forecast defensive.
  • Target = > 0,8% of long size.
  • Strategy: fall after Earning results. Use of 2 or 3 slots.

Table

Evolution

14/February: second long executed.

Outputs

Reason to Short = To be completed

How was short? = Sell order, Stop-loss order or stop-profit

Postmortem Analysis

 

The New Trading For a Living

This book written by Alexander Elder is a fantastic way to start learning trading.

I learn a lot from Systematic Trading about how to be systematic and how to manage your portfolio. But with this book I learn the different types of trading, how to focus on the behavior, how to build your own habits on specific papers, the importance of include the checklist on a daily basis, etc…

Don’t do it!!

Alexander is about 40 pages of the book persuading you to do not try it, he explains the different reasons trading is a risky and complex activity to be performed consistently along the time.

Risk management

  • rule of 2% for the maximum operations exposed by month.
  • Use risk exposure to handle your trades. The concept of “buying risk exposure” when you want to open more trades and you cannot do it.
  • rule of 6% for the maximum exposure of risk of your portfolio.
  • Understand how to adapt the use of slots and margins with respect the obtained results.

Classification of activities you have to do, how to engage general topics on your daily habits, how to socialize the trading with other people and learn from the previous data.

I pretend to be a Swing Trader

I learned reading the book that what I do is Swing Trading. My current scenarios are trades that can take hours, days or weeks, so now I know I want to become a swing trader.

This has enabled me to focus on how to organize the portfolio, how to divide the efforts on analysis, focus on specific tactics and measure the real results I obtain.

I have removed a lot of noise and wrong behaviors that did not help me on my duties.

The perfect trade

Alexander Elder in the book “The new Trading for a Living” comments that you have to know what are the type of trades you want to perform and what are these the perfect moves you are chasing.

So, here is the list of moves and data:

Moving average Crossover tactic:

Dividend King Stumble (tropezón de un rey del dividendo)

More to come when they are shown…