Los mapas de Wardley

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Que son los mapas de Wardley

Los mapas de Wardley es una técnica que lo ayuda a examinar un entorno dado, identificar los próximos cambios que van a ocurrir y ayuda a elegir adecuadamente las acciones a tomar. Al examinar qué se necesita, qué componentes se utilizarán, cuáles son sus dependencias y características, se puede construir una representación visual de su mundo, jugar a juegos hipotéticos y elegir su dirección y las mejores acciones para apoyarlo.

Hace poco me di cuenta que llevo usando esta técnica desde 2013 y que conozco los planteamientos básicos de su uso, pero que echo en falta dos cosas fundamentales:

  • Ahondar más en los detalles de la técnica.
  • La inexistencia de una comunidad en español que conozca los mapas de Wardley.

Con ello, me he propuesto traducir parte del contenido de los mapas de Wardley al español, para tratar de mejorar los dos puntos mencionados anteriormente.

Principios y partes de la traducción

  1. El libro, que originalmente está en publicado en medium lo trataré de traducir lo más cercana posible al original, solo adaptando situaciones personales y contenido relevante para aprender sobre esta técnica.
  2. Mapas de ejemplo, herramientas, otros recursos: documentaré algunas cosas que existen e iré añadiendo cosas conforme las vaya usando (mi falta de tiempo es un impedimento importante, ….bueno, como a todos).

Actividades (Kanban)

1.- A realizar

  1. Buscar plug-in sobre rutas o completar cursos.
  2. Buscar plugín sobre conversaciones
  3. Llenar de contenido la página.
  4. Divulgar la página por el mundo.

2.- En progreso

  1. Crear un entorno donde colgar la documentación (aquí).

3.- Completadas

  1. Hablar con Simon acerca de llevar a cabo este proyecto (hecho).

Tabla de contenido del libro hasta ahora (Simon continúa escribiendo capítulos)

  • Licencia (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 1 – Al estar perdido (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 2 – Encontrar un camino (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 3 – Explorando el mapa (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 4 – Doctrina (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 5 – La jugaday la decisión de actuar. (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 6 – Comenzando usted mismo (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 7 – Encontrar un nuevo propósito (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 8 – Manteniendo a raya a los lobos (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 9 – Trazando el futuro (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 10 – ¡No esperaba eso! (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 11 – Una mezcla heterogénea de lo poco útil (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 12 – El escenario (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 13 – Algo malo viene por aquí (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 14 – Sé fiel a ti mismo (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 15 – Sobre la práctica de la planificación de escenarios (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 16 – Super Looper (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 17 – Hasta el infinito y más allá (a realizar)
  • Capítulo 18 – Más por menos (a realizar)

 

Recomendaciones?

Si tienes alguna recomendación sobre lo que debería hacer o mejorar, dímelo.

Year 3, Learning about Raspberry PI and Wardley Maps Q3

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A change of content

I feel I need to rest of the financial investing journey I’m doing. I have been thinking about an alternative and I found out that I have a Raspberry Pi in a box that I have still not used. So for this quarter I will try to learn about what can I do with it.

A friend that is going to help me with the Raspberry told me that it will not take so much time, so I should look for other things to learn. I’m not sure about it, but let’s start with something and let’s look for another initiative, just in case.

The alternative learning thread will be focused on Wardley maps. I have used for a long time (I started with them in 2013), and I have the feeling that in the Spanish word it does not have more impact because the language is still a high barrier for some people. I have been thinking about it since some while ago: it’s to translate Wardley maps content into Spanish.

Year 3, Quarter 3

As usual these are the goals for this quarter, following the V2MOM model:

For the Raspberry Pi:

  • Vision: start using the Raspberry Pi.
  • Values: have fun, learn a lot, do practices and more practices.
  • Method: set it up, find a couple of use cases and make them work.
  • Obstacles: Time.
  • Measures:
    • Install OS on Raspberry PI.
    • To have a couple of use cases that are implemented at home: pi-hole and another one to be defined.

For the Wardley maps translation:

  • Vision: have a place with Wardley maps content in Spanish.
  • Values: have fun, learn the details of the different chapters published.
  • Method: set up a place,translate and adapt the content when required, publish some of the maps I did.
  • Obstacles: Time.
  • Measures:
    • Build a place to document about Wardley maps.
    • To have at least 5 chapters ready for publishing.
    • Complete the initial content of the website.
    • Add at least 3 maps I have done to Spanish.

Death line = 30/September/2020

Results (October, 2020)

  • Raspberry PI.
    • Install OS on Raspberry PI (not done).
    • Pi-hole up and running (not done).
    • and another one to be defined (not done).
  • Wardley maps.
    • Build a place to document about Wardley maps (not done).
    • To have at least 5 chapters ready for publishing (not done).
    • Complete the initial content of the website (not done).
    • Add at least 3 maps I have done to Spanish (not done).

tradingview pine limit

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I am trying to write a script on Pine (related to a Tradingview strategy) where I want to use the series and take the previous value or past values to make a set of operations.

Something as:

a = if(Alerta1[-1] == 5, 10,0)

the pine script is saved without error, but during the execution, an error is shown:

Index can’t be a negative value (-1)

Is there anybody that could let me know how to solve it?

I would like to use “[-1]” and other “minus” such “[-20]” for a script.

many thanks in advance

The answer

The answer is as simple that I’m embarrassed of not being able to see it:

https://www.tradingview.com/pine-script-docs/en/v4/language/Operators.html#history-reference-operator

Value Line Geometric Index

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The american market (I focus on S&P 500) has recuperated 40% of the value since March where it touch the minimum value.

It’s an impressive “come back” while the macro economy data is showing terrible numbers about unemployment, consumption, industrial production….

The economy and the market are driving themselves in the opposite direction. So, so many questions come to my mind:

  • Is the market crazy?
  • is the market completely disconnected from the economy?
  • are we looking at the right numbers?

Well, Mr. Market does what he wants, and we cannot do anything about it. Disconnected from the economy? I do not think so, maybe there is a bubble, but sooner or later it will adjust. Well, my answers are poor, and it’s basically because I have not a concrete answer to these questions.

The last question: “are we looking at the right numbers?” makes me to go to Value Line Geometric Index

Value Line Geometric Index

This index includes all the american market. For more information the Wikipedia.

“All companies in the Value Line Composite Index are publicly listed on one of the major exchanges listed below. The number of companies in the Value Line Composite Index fluctuates based on factors including: the addition or delisting of the companies on the exchanges themselves, mergers, acquisitions, bankruptcies, and the coverage decisions made by Value Line for the Value Line Composite Index. Value Line’s decisions as to which companies to include are undertaken with the intention to create a broad representation of the North American equity market.

Exchanges in The Value Line Composite Index are:

  • American Stock Exchange
  • NASDAQ
  • New York Stock Exchange
  • Toronto Stock Exchange

Well, comparing the VALUG (blue) with SPX (red), you can see that Value Line Geometric Index is more closed to the reality that I had in mind that is that we still have not recuperated.

If we look the comparison of the indexes from February 12th, the result is that draw-down is bigger for VALUG, and that the recuperation is below than S&P:

To do: I will add this index to my reviews, I have first to learn from it.

Spanish market issue: script dividend as extended policy

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One of the big issues of the stock market in Spain is the one represented in this picture.

Dividends? No, “papers”

Some of the popular investment methods is based on dividends, some others at least recognize that dividends is an incentive to invest on a company.

The main companies in the IBEX-35 market, so many times, instead of cutting the dividend or ask for money to the market, they have created a mechanism to do two things at the same time: script dividend.

They define a process with different steps that you have to follow. Mainly there are 2 options:

  • you grab the dividends and run.
  • you grab a set of new stocks (a new amount of stocks published to inject extra money into the company).

The process to do it

Once that is declared the “script dividend” you have to learn how to go through the process of claiming the new stocks or to take the dividend itself. This process is not straight forward, it’s a very complex process that requires you time to understand it, and then you have to pay attention the key days where you have to make a decision.

In a nutshell, so many small investors fall in the trap and they capture more stocks that they really do not want, diluting the value of the company.

My opinion

is that an incentive turns into an obligation to the investor, making him to decide on something that is not initially their responsibility. The result in the long term is not working well for the companies that are following this policy.

 

 

 

Design Thinking Process

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A process cycle based in a 5 stages:

  • Empathize
  • Define
  • Ideate
  • Prototype
  • Test

Empathize

Objective:

  • Understand customers’ needs
  • Deep insight into what they need and expect from the solution/product

Activities

  • Engage with stakeholders
  • Use innovative methods to collect information
  • Understand the problem/need
  • Record observation to answer what, how, and why

Guidelines to follow:

  • Adopt appropriate method to gather relevant information
  • Engage stakeholders positively
  • Experience the problem to understand the impact

Define

Objective:

  • To create a well-defined and meaningful problem statement to focus on

Activities

  • Information analysis
  • Collaborating observations that help define the core problem
  • Provide clarity and scope to the problem

Guidelines to follow:

  • Focus on the positive aspects of the customers’ needs
  • Eliminate negative aspects identified in their needs
  • Identify connectivity between problems by identifying similar context
  • Break down the problems into sub-problems
  • Define each problem to create meaningful problem statement

Ideate

Objective:

  • To generate and define multiple ideas

Activities:

  • Collect as many ideas as possible
  • Think, think, think…
  • Brainstorming
  • Use tools like charting, mind maps, boards
  • Gather all solutions suggested by the team of thinkers

Guidelines to follow:

  • Don’t get into details, feasibility, and viability during this phase
  • Don’t evaluate ideas
  • Focus on generating ideas
  • Always create visualization of ideas

Prototype

Objective:

  • To testify an idea
    • Verifies whether an implemented solution is successful
    • Identify further problems with the implemented idea to refine
  • Gathering feedback from the users about their experiences with the product

Activities:

  • Identify the type of prototype needed to illustrate the ideas
  • Capture all the key aspects of the idea and solution with the prototypes

Guidelines to follow:

  • Don’t spend too much time on the prototype always build prototypes with the intended users in mind
  • Checking feasibility and collecting feedback is the primary objective of prototypes.
  • Don’t focus on internal problems

Types of prototypes:

  • Basic prototype model: provide limited tested features, it’s inexpensive, may not be useful for some cases, you will get limited feedback.
  • Operational prototype model: operates like finished products, they are expensive, users can visualize how they will operate, you will get deep feedback.

Test

Objective:

  • Return to your users and test the prototype for obtaining feedback

Activities:

  • Engage with stakeholders
  • Understand if the needs are covered
  • Collect as much feedback as possible

Guidelines to follow:

  • Focus on assertive and defined feedback
  • structure the test activities with the user stories.
  • explain what was implemented and not implemented in the prototype (set expectations)
  • Don’t focus on internal problems

Discourse

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I am participating on different forums and some of them are built with this open source software called: Discourse.

From usability point of view it’s the best one I am using. It’s not only the look and feel, it’s the sequence of information offered, the access to the already read threads, and many little details that makes you feel comfortable using it. You feel you save a lot of time when reading a blog using this software.

This behavior is on the desktop and mobile, which makes quick reviews of updates very easy. The keep you engaged on the web.

On the .org page you can implement it for your own forum with different pricing options.

Tribe.so

You can use https://tribe.so/ too for installation of an environment.

 

 

 

The Fifth risk

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I bought this book in 2019 but I was not able to read it till now, with the quarantine I remembered I had this one on a shelf.

Very interesting to understand how the different governmental organizations work and how the transitions were completed (or not in this case).

I love the personal stories that Michael Lewis give us in this book.

Fundsmith annual shareholder meeting 2020

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I discovered this shareholders meeting last year and I was willing to review it in detail. Below some notes.

First 33 minutes is the formal presentation, after that Q&A.

The link to the letter to shareholders: https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/docs/default-source/analysis—annual-letters/annual-letter-to-shareholders-2019.pdf?sfvrsn=6

Minute #10:

Why they sold 3M on the one hand, 3M sold its ceramic bulletproof business unit at a price of 1.1x sales and acquired Acelity, which was a private company, for 11x EBITDA. Acelitywas actually going public and according to the prospectus, the opening price was was going to be 15x EBITDA. When asked about the difference between 11 and 15, they claimed that they announced the multiple of 11 EBITDA for the expected synergies. Fundsmith interpreted this as a lie.

In the shareholder letter: “we were acting on growing doubts about the current management’s capital allocation decision”.

minute #37:

Sub-estimate the impact of Covid-19.

minute #48:

Replying about why they don’t buy Apple or Alphabet.

About Google : ROE in 2019 is about 17%, which is average. Capital allocation is poor: they acquire small potential companies that could become competence in some niche and they dissolve these projects.

About Apple: sales and cash flow are flat in the last 4 years and the stock price has tripled. They saw the same behavior in companies as Nokia.

Comment about Sortino Ratio Versus Sharpe Ratio

The Sortino ratio is an adaption of the Sharpe ratio, and in my view an improvement. Whereas the Sharpe ratio estimates risk by the variability of returns, the Sortino ratio takes into account only downside variability as it is not clear why we should be concerned about upside volatility (i.e. when our Fund goes up a lot) which mostly
seems to be a cause for celebration.