Guifi.net

Common telecomunications network: open, free and neutral

This is the purpose of Guifi.net, a place where there are so many interconnected routers, lines and individuals sharing their network with a clear purpose: open, free and neutral.

Coverage map

You can see a map where you will see how extended the network is:

guifinet map Spain

In Sevilla there is a cooperative working under the same principles: SevillaGuifi.net

New buzzword, Flippening

New buzzword, at least to me

Flippening is defined as an expected paradigm shift in the world of cryptocurrency, where the values of cryptocurrencies are no longer primarily based on the value of Bitcoin.

If flippening happens, it will mark the end of the absolute dominance and special status that Bitcoin has had in cryptocurrency markets ever since its inception in 2009.

Who can provoke it? Etherium, it’s basically the ecosystem that is growing at a considerable speed to provoke it.

Where can I check how is this evolving? For instance: http://www.flippening.watch/

This page has 2 concerns to me:

  • They do not describe how the calculate the numbers they publish.
  • They do not provide a graph with the evolution during the time they have measured it.

Do you think that flippening will happen?

The extended concept of flippeting is based on the market capital.

In June 2017 it was closed to happen:

Flippening June 2017After that Bitcoin became extremely popular and you perfectly know what happens between October and December 2017.

Now, May 2018 the situation is:

Flippening May 2018Do you think that the flippening effect will happen?

If so, when?

I have no clue, but if I have to do a bet I would say that it will happen in Q1 2019. Why? Because there are so many ICOs published with consistent companies behind investing. Not all will survive, but that volume will be the one that will incline the sclale to the other side.

There is another significant flippening that long term investors are looking for

and it is that the number of token-users overcomes the number of token-traders. This article explains very well all the key aspects that will enable some crypto-assets to become long term investment assets.

Transformations that require to provide specific value

Background

We are working on a contract renewal with a customer that is driving the process with clear goals and expectations. They want to renew just for 2 years and have a YoY savings of 6%.

Initial approach

We were requested to look into the current solutions, look for improvements and identify transition or transformation projects that enable a new contract with the 6% savings.

We have done the analysis and after that we have done some specific conclusions and a generic conclusion about the situation.

What is the typical cycle of CAPEX investment where you are looking for ROI?

  • 5 Years contract.
  • Transition & transformations during the first 2 years.
  • Positive return in the fith year.
  • Consider basic calculation/benefits, I have not added any additional benefit as time to market, or other benefits.

In my analysis I have created simple scenarios:

  • Scenario 1: plain scenario, as baseline for comparison (I do not do anything).
  • Scenario 2: T&T with 10% on 5 years contract with small YoY reduction.
  • Scenario 3: T&T with 10% on 5 years contract with a more agressive YoY reduction.

Conclusion

  • When creating T&T programs with specific returns, you require some time to
  • T&T should not be more than 10% – 12% of the overall price of your solution.
  • In environments where automation is deployed and there are not other major angles to improve, a different approach is required (change of solution with a business case that requires more CAPEX and years to obtain ROI).
  • Hidden cost is an obstacle to be competitive.
  • In our case, it is mathematically not possible to propose a T&T project to recover the ROI is just 2 years (if you are not removing a clear major issue). The only available approach is to accelerate continuous improvement on the existing services.

Análisis técnico y velas japonesas para inversores de medio y largo plazo partiendo de cero

Gregorio Hernández Jiménez

ha escrito muchos libros sobre bolsa, este es el segundo que empiezo a leer y el primero que termino, el otro aún lo tengo a medias.

El libro me ha permitido aprender cosas básicas sobre el trading que no sabía, explicación de los indicadores básicos, una guía de como integrar todo y sobre todo unas explicaciones con algunas metáforas muy buenas que son fáciles de recordar.

Todo lo que leí hasta ahora estaba enfocado en trading sobre Forex y cryptomonedas, este está enfocado en stocks, lo cual, combinado con las explicaciones básicas de indicadores me ha resultado muy fructífero en estos momentos.

http://www.invertirenbolsa.info/

Cryptoasset Valuations

Background

I have had some conversations about the maturity of the cryptocurrencies market related to the maturity of the companies and how I miss to have the fundamental indicators as you can have for a public company (Revenue, Costs, P/E, balance sheets…).

The companies publishing cyptocurrencies are private companies and they do not have  obligation to share this information, but there should be in the future a general consensus about how to valuate their assets, the coins they put in the market.

As everybody can easily figure out, I always has stated that there will be a moment where so many cryptocurrencies will disappear as they do not make sense, and others will survive as they make sense and provide value.

Well, I would like to understand how to valuate them (better before they disappear).

Value… where? on the transaction.

The basis

The basic value of a cryptoasset is the value provided to a given transaction. If you perform a transaction via the traditional or existing channel this has a cost, a speed of execution and a given security.

If you execute that transaction through a crytocurrency, is it cheaper? faster? more secure?…

On top of that, the volume of transaction:

  • how many of these transactions are happening in the market?
  • how many of these transactions are managed through this blockchain environment?
  • What are the efforts of the company to attract more transactions to their ecosystem?

Cryptoasset Valuations

I’m a beginner on blockchain and on asset valuations, so I have look for the experts. I found this article written by  Chris Burniske, where he explains how to do the valuation (he attaches a nice excel that helps a lot to understand the details).

Each cryptoasset serves as a currency in the protocol economy it supports. Since the equation of exchange is used to understand the flow of money needed to support an economy, it becomes a cornerstone to cryptoasset valuations.

The equation of exchange is MV = PQ, and when applied to crypto my interpretation is:

  • M = size of the asset base.
  • V = velocity of the asset (shows the number of times an asset changes hands in a given time period).
  • P = price of the digital resource being provisioned (price of the cryptocurrency or crytoasset).
  • Q = quantity of the digital resource being provisioned

A cryptoasset valuation is largely comprised of solving for M, where M = PQ / V. M is the size of the monetary base necessary to support a cryptoeconomy of size PQ, at velocity V.

Next steps

  • I need to understand better the calculation of the market value.
  • Go deep on a real ICO and perform a valuation.
  • Understand how to do a token utility calculation.

OODA loop by John Boyd

Reading the chapter “Better for Less” of Wardley Maps I found a new concept to me: OODA loop.

It’s a strategy cycle that stands for:

Observe the environment, Orient around it,  Decide your path and Act

The creator of this concept was John Boyd , which Wikipedia page is really interesting to read, the basis are represented in the diagram shown below:

Before run, just walk

To put in place a strategy cycle or continuous mindset is not easy and Simon’s suggestion is:

  1. Start with Just do it,
  2. then jump into Plan, Do, Check, Act (SixSigma),
  3. finnally go to Observe, orient, decide and act.

Time is the dominant parameter

Think about an aircraft pilot who goes through the OODA cycle in the shortest time prevails because his opponent is caught responding to situations that have already changed.

Think about continuous decisions that needs to be done, continous changes on different aspects of the environment and the need to overcome them.

A basic squeme you are able to put in practice and repeat is something that can be useful, not just for an individual but for a whole organization that is able to adapt itself as a whole.

Cryptocurrencies scams

The cryptocurrencies have a side B, the scams. There are so many, and we cannot ignore them. Ponzi schemes, false roadmaps, …

Shit happens, but with a proper due dilligence you can minimize the risks.

Basic due dilligence (basic questions)

The general consensus about due dilligence is: do a standard due diligence as if it is a traditional company, plus check specific questions from the blockchain environment. Things such:

  • Exaggerated returns percentages.
  • Not clear or very complicated transaction fees.
  • Who are the owners? (yes, some of the ICOS I have read they do not add any name, incredible isn’t it?)
  • Do they have a clear roadmap?
  • Are they achieving the defined roadmap?
  • What is the implemented token model?
  • What is the value of the cryptoasset in the value chain of economy?
  • How the crypto asset is evaluated?
  • Is the consensus model a trusted one?

I will list the ones that I know that happened, ordered by scammed amount:

  1. Pincoin token: A Vietnamese cryptocurrency company Modern Tech. The team disappeared after scamming around 660m$ (April/2018)

A complete blacklist of scams and potential scams being evaluated: https://www.scambitcoin.com/blacklist/

Corda

Corda is an open source blockchain project, designed for business from the start. Created in 2016 by the R3 consortium of financial institutions.

Key features

  • No unnecessary global sharing of data: only parties with a legitimate need to know can see the data within an agreement.
  • It choreographs workflow between firms without a central controller.
  • Corda achieves consensus at the level of individual deals between firms, not at the level of the system.
  • The design directly enables supervisory and regulatory observer nodes.
  • Transactions are validated by the parties to the transaction rather than a broader pool of unrelated validators.
  • A variety of consensus mechanisms are supported.
  • It records an explicit link between smart contract code and human-language legal documents.
  • It’s built on industry-standard tools.
  • There is has no native cryptocurrency.

Oracles

This is a new concept for me; it is basically an entity or organization that is an operator of Corda nodes. We are in a financial environment, so Oracles can provide information such interest rates, exchange rates or any other information that forms a component of a contract.

Oracles operate in a commercial manner that assures they can receive payment for their services.

Oracle providers can deploy their Oracle services into one interoperability zone and service all business networks within that zone.

Commercial offer or Opensource offer

If you want to compete in the payments word, you will better go to the commercial solution offered by R3 consortium.