Year 3, trading training Q2

Year 3

This year 3 my goal is to focus on the swing trading and the acquisition of knowledge and experience on this type of trading.

This Q2 is the continuation of Q1.

Year 3, Quarter 2

As usual these are the goals for this quarter, following the V2MOM model:

  • Vision: advance on market timing trading knowledge, promote DREAM.
  • Values: have fun, learn a lot, do practices and more practices.
  • Method: learn about market trading mechanisms, build the content to promote DREAM.
  • Obstacles: Time.
  • Measures:
    • Read one book.
    • Long term strategy:
      • 3 podcasts listened every week, this will be a total of around 39 hours of podcasts.
      • Read at least 13 earning reports.
      • Keep track of the portfolio in a weekly basis.
      • Avoid in-day trading.
    • Market Timing
      • Write down the tactic and the tables of indicators.
      • Build a template with all data related to a thesis.
    • DREAM
      • Define a plan to promote DREAM.
      • Generate content to promote DREAM.

Death line = 30/June/2020

Results (July, 2020)

  • Read 1 books.
    • .
  • 3 podcasts listened every week, this will be a total of around 39 hours of podcasts = 32 hours.
  • have a tactic plan.
  • Read at least 13 earning reports.
    1. XOM
    2. WBA
    3. GAZ.DE
    4. CTVA
    5. LYFT
    6. UNM
    7. CVGW
  • Keep track of the portfolio in a weekly basis.
  • DREAM:
    • Build a web site: place, information on the site (done).
    • Advertise the site (working on it): linkedin, twitter, medium, invertirenbolsa, cazadividendos,
  • Avoid in-day trading.

Coronavirus and S&P

It is the first time that I have a situation like this while studying indicators like these ones, so I am going to document what is going on.

The starting snapshot

4 weeks after the historical highest SPX when was at 3400 points this is what happens.

Initial view

  1. The McClellan oscillator seems to decrease the fall, in theory it begins to draw a divergence, which to me it still needs a few days to confirm.
  2. The “strong hand” sales volume is supposed to be decreasing, but the SPX is still down.

Things to watch:

  1. The US senate, congress and the FED agree;
  2. the impact of the COVID-19 in US.

To be updated soon…

My triple screens layers (by Alexander Elder)

In the book The New Trading for a Living,  Alexander Elder describes an useful and mechanic way to analyze and filter opportunities for investing: triple screen.

The 3 layers have a main purpose these are:

  • Top screen                 = censorship purpose.
  • Intermediate screen   = determine if there is an opportunity
  • Bottom screen           = refine the short

What do I check on each screen?

Top screen

  • Time frame = Weekly and daily
  • Support and resistance
  • Konkorde indicator (by blai5)
  • EMA(200), EMA(50), EMA(20)
  • Gatillo indicator (by Miguel Larrañaga)

Intermediate screen

  • Time frame = daily
  • Bollinger bands
  • EMA(200), EMA(50), EMA(20)
  • Volume Price Confirmation Indicator (by LazyBear)
  • Squeeze Momentum Indicator (or “SQZMOM” by LazyBear)

Bottom screen

  • Time frame = hour and 15 minutes
  • Double Bollinger Bands (by blai5)
  • Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
  • Gatillo indicator (by Miguel Larrañaga) (being evaluated).

Continuous improvement (to do list)

things that I’m evaluating or I need to do:

 

 

The Dividend Investing Resource Center

This is a must link I am using since some time, and I wanted to keep it outside of my laptop.

https://www.dripinvesting.org/Tools/Tools.asp

I love the excel with the updated data, specially:

  • The table of changes of the major dividend players, specially those that are “out” of the dividend kings or aristocrats lists.
  • The fact that is in excel, that enables me easily to have the Chowder number.

 

Robinhood App is down

Today, March 2nd 2020 Robinhood application is down. One interesting day to trade as volumes are up, so I cannot do it.

Yes, fees are small, and they are covered by the acceptance of the terms of use, but by this reason I operate with this broker only the R&D portfolio.

Renault

I started this positions some months ago, I read about the company, about the valuation and how things were running in the sector, so I decided to open a long position on it.

After some months with 3 long events the margin was so bad that was over the limit to the protection of my portfolio, so I short it with loss.

Bad move, let’s continue with the method and improving it.

 

 

Trade on Lyft

Abstract

  • Reason to Long = Fall after Q4 results. Results fine, forecast defensive.
  • Target = > 0,8% of long size.
  • Strategy: fall after Earning results. Use of 2 or 3 slots.

Table

Evolution

14/February: second long executed.

Outputs

Reason to Short = To be completed

How was short? = Sell order, Stop-loss order or stop-profit

Postmortem Analysis

 

The perfect trade

Alexander Elder in the book “The new Trading for a Living” comments that you have to know what are the type of trades you want to perform and what are these the perfect moves you are chasing.

So, here is the list of moves and data:

Moving average Crossover tactic:

Dividend King Stumble (tropezón de un rey del dividendo)

More to come when they are shown…

Year 3, trading training Q1

Year 3

This year 3 my goal is to focus on the swing trading and the acquisition of knowledge and experience on this type of trading.

The ideal swings will take only days (no in-day trading at this minute).

Year 3, Quarter 1

As usual these are the goals for this quarter, following the V2MOM model:

  • Vision: organize the trading activities under a framework and specific commands that enable me to long and short stocks. Manage the portfolio of money based on Automatic trading principles.
  • Values: have fun, learn a lot, do practices and more practices.
  • Method: learn about specific trading tactics, learn about the context of the market and finance fundamentals.
  • Obstacles: Time.
  • Measures:
    • Read 2 books.
    • 3 podcasts listened every week, this will be a total of around 39 hours of podcasts.
    • have a tactic plan.
    • Read at least 13 earning reports.
    • Keep track of the portfolio in a weekly basis.
    • Avoid in-day trading.

Death line = 31/March/2020

Results (April, 2020)

  • Read 2 books.
    • The new trading for a living (Alexander Elder).
    • Fail, I was not able to complete the second book.
  • 3 podcasts listened every week, this will be a total of around 39 hours of podcasts = 42 hours.
  • have a tactic plan: done.
  • Read at least 13 earning reports (done).
    1. Exxon (XOM)
    2. Simon Property Group (SPG)
    3. DuPont (DD)
    4. Corteva (CTVA)
    5. Unum Group (UNM)
    6. Google (GOOG)
    7. Microsoft (MSFT)
    8. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
    9. Hanes Brands Inc (HBI)
    10. T Rowe Price (TROW)
    11. Lyft (LYFT)
    12. Johnson & Johnson
    13. General Mills (GIS)
  • Keep track of the portfolio in a weekly basis = done
  • Avoid in-day trading = not achieved.