The Fifth risk

I bought this book in 2019 but I was not able to read it till now, with the quarantine I remembered I had this one on a shelf. Very interesting to understand how the different governmental organizations work and how the transitions were completed (or not in this case). I love the personal stories that … Read more

Fundsmith annual shareholder meeting 2020

I discovered this shareholders meeting last year and I was willing to review it in detail. Below some notes. First 33 minutes is the formal presentation, after that Q&A. The link to the letter to shareholders:—annual-letters/annual-letter-to-shareholders-2019.pdf?sfvrsn=6 Minute #10: Why they sold 3M on the one hand, 3M sold its ceramic bulletproof business unit at … Read more

Market Opening checklist

This is a checklist of things to review once just before and after the market is opened. Before market opens (9:15 ET) Check S&P and Nasdaq futures indexes. Previous day closing, Market breadth check, McClellan indicator. How is Europe going on? Check DAX. Check DIX and GEX Index in squeeemeetrics, from previous day. EUR/USD trend. … Read more

System: Carter MA 8 – 21

Abstract In his book “Mastering the trade”, John Carter proposes a simple system based on the moving averages of 8 and 21. I have implemented the basis of this system and I have changed some behaviors: I added the Squeeze momentum indicator to filter the positive trend and reduce the draw downs. I have not … Read more

Backtesting tips

I do this list of tips so I review before I do some back-testing analysis. main questions (from John Bogle) What is the rationale or hypothesis? What is the empirical evidence? What are the implementation results? Tips to remind Do a test of your system with 2008. If you look for correlation, you probably will … Read more

Cboe SKEW Index (“SKEW”)

Introduction to SKEW Index The Cboe SKEW Index (“SKEW”) is an index derived from the price of S&P 500 tail risk. It’s similar to Volatility Index (VIX). The primary difference between the VIX and the SKEW is that the VIX is based upon implied volatility round the at-the-money (ATM) strike price while the SKEW considers implied volatility of out-of-the-money (OTM) … Read more

Market breadth analysis

I’m learning about market breadth and I’m trying to organize a mechanic way to analyze the data I have and improve the decisions I do about the best moment to long and short. This post covers the current set of indicators I see and the order of preference. Some basis I use S&P 500 as … Read more

Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB)

The FASB Accounting Standards Codification is the source of authoritative generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) recognized by the FASB to be applied by nongovernmental entities. They provide updates from time to time about different topics. An example: Archer Daniels Midland I was reviewing this company and how the free cash flow turned negative in 2017. … Read more

Counting drilling rigs

Background I have the purpose of counting US drilling rigs that are producing oil. I understand so many of them are closing and the cost to re-open them should be considerable. With the amount of oil in the market and the future prices sinking into even negative values, I want to challenge my self if … Read more