Every business decision, without exception is a gamble. We choose to invest money and time in the hope that the investment will provide a return greater than our investment.
There are 2 type of gamblers: does who calculate the odds, and does who don’t.
On a typical business case, you calculate the costs, the benefit, list the risks and use the intuition to decide to go or not to go.
Intuition cannot be replaced and it’s a necessary component. But the lack of the uncertainly analysis makes that the decision makers does not have a clear where a specific business case fits on the other business cases of your portfolio.
This certainly analysis is a complex exercise which purpose is to know is the probability of the benefits being less than the costs.
For a given opportunity this exercise is necessary to know the probability of success you have. For a given portfolio, this analysis is essential to know the exposure you have.
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