This news: Goldman Sachs, BofA and others plan to issue dollar stablecoin together in 2027, made me review this map (I could have taken another one from the portfolio of maps I have on this company).

The key question I asked myself was: in this situation, should they buy or build?

Buy or build

1. Pros of Building This Capability

• Yield Retention & High-Margin Revenue: Currently, non-bank issuers (like Tether and Circle) earn massive net interest margin (NIM) by holding reserve assets (short-term US Treasuries and cash reserves) while paying 0% yield to token holders. Creating an institutional stablecoin allows major banks to keep reserve management fees and treasury yields in-house. Clarity Act potentially could change that.
• Reduction of Interbank Settlement Friction: A shared bank-backed token enables 24/7/365 instant cross-border and interbank liquidity settlement, disintermediating traditional wire systems (like Fedwire or SWIFT) and reducing settlement times from $T+1/T+2$ to near real-time ($T+0$). This could be a game changer or a threat.
• Institutional Regulatory Trust: Large commercial banks bring compliance and regulatory backing that corporate treasuries and institutional asset managers trust far more than offshore or non-bank crypto entities. Here the exception is Circle, which holds all the regulatory papers as all regulators demand.
• Countering Non-Bank Monopoly: Prevents crypto-native infrastructure providers from locking down institutional payment rails, …protect the moat.

2. Cons of Building This Capability

• Consortium Governance & Profit Allocation Deadlocks: Joint ventures between major tier-1 banks historically face friction regarding revenue sharing, governance rights, tech stack standardization, and decision-making speed (e.g., historical delays seen in initiatives like R3 or Early Warning Services/Zelle).
• Deposit Cannibalization & Disintermediation Risk: If corporate clients move traditional bank deposits into stablecoins, banks risk losing low-cost commercial deposit bases. Without careful structuring, stablecoins convert core banking deposits into segregated reserve pools.
• Regulatory Scrutiny & Systemic Risk Classification: A consortium of important financial institutions issuing a unified digital settlement currency will trigger heavy oversight from the Federal Reserve, OCC, and international regulators regarding liquidity coverage ratios (LCR), operational resilience, and run risks. So, is realistic to have all ready in June 2027?

Total Addressable Market (TAM) Analysis

What is the TAM for Stablecoins now and in 2030?

Current TAM — August 2026

• Total Stablecoin Market Capitalization:~$308 Billion
  • Context: The total circulating supply of dollar-denominated stablecoins stands at ~$308 billion (led by Tether’s USDT at ~59% share and Circle’s USDC at ~23% share).
• Annualized Transaction / Settlement Volume:~$33 Trillion – $46 Trillion annually
  • Context: On-chain settlement volume has surpassed traditional payment networks (such as ACH and Visa cross-border volume), driven heavily by institutional liquidity, B2B treasury movements, and crypto-asset clearing.

Expected TAM — August 2030

• Projected Market Capitalization (Circulating Supply):$1.5 Trillion – $2.8 Trillion
  • Growth Drivers: Mainstream integration into cross-border B2B trade payments, tokenized real-world asset (RWA) settlements (such as money market funds and bonds), dynamic treasury management, and retail merchant checkout integration.
• Projected Annual Settlement Volume:$75 Trillion – $100+ Trillion annually
  • Context: As cross-border corporate payments shift onto programmable DLT rails, B2B cross-border volume alone is forecasted to represent the vast majority (~85%) of total stablecoin movement.

Current Market Value of Circle Internet Group ($CRCL)

But wait, how much it cost Circle? At a Share Price ~$94.05 USD per share, it’s market capitalization is ~$23.88 Billion USD

Is that addressable to these companies? Let’s see some of the previous acquisitions:

Acquiring Bank	Target / Acquired Company	Year Acquired	Transaction Value	Deal Context / Strategic Role
Bank of America	NationsBank (Merger of Equals)	1998	~$62 Billion	Formed the modern nationwide Bank of America commercial footprint.
Bank of America	Merrill Lynch & Co.	2008	~$50 Billion	Acquired during the financial crisis; established BofA’s core wealth and investment banking arm.
Bank of America	FleetBoston Financial	2004	~$47 Billion	Significantly expanded retail and commercial banking operations in the U.S. Northeast.
Citigroup	Travelers Group	1998	~$70 Billion	Historic $70B financial services merger creating Citigroup, combining commercial banking, insurance, and investment banking.
Citigroup	Associates First Capital	2000	~$31.1 Billion	Broadened Citigroup’s reach into global consumer finance and credit management.
Citigroup	Banamex (Banco Nacional de México)	2001	~$12.5 Billion	Expanded Citigroup’s retail footprint across Latin America via Mexico’s second-largest bank.
Deutsche Bank	Bankers Trust	1999	~$10.1 Billion	Landmark acquisition granting Deutsche Bank a major presence in U.S. corporate banking and asset management.
Deutsche Bank	Postbank (Deutsche Postbank)	2010	~$8.0 Billion	Consolidated retail banking dominance in Germany by integrating Postbank’s extensive branch network.
Goldman Sachs	Spear, Leeds & Kellogg	2000	~$6.3 Billion	Enhanced market-making, market execution, and clearing services on the NYSE.
Goldman Sachs	NN Investment Partners	2022	~$1.9 Billion	Expanded European asset management capabilities and integrated ESG investment product offerings.
Goldman Sachs	United Capital Financial Partners	2019	~$750 Million	Strategic move into high-net-worth wealth management and mass-affluent retail advisory.

Takeaways

Let’s see what happens with this consortium, my gut tells me that some of these major Americans banks are going to buy Circle as soon as the numbers and assumptions make the operation feasible.

Let’s say someone offers 30% more than these $24B, so around $32B…. I see that more affordable than building their own ecosystem from scratch with the complexity of doing it. It will not be ready before 2028-2029.

Last but not least, there’s a major player that is not in the picture: JP Morgan.