Why Lotus Notes will die and Cobol will survey?

Just some notes to be read on future.

Lotus Notes will die because:

• The volumes capacities that the companies require cannot be stored by LN.
• The workflows these applications manage are being moved
• There are so much companies that are migrating to Exchange.
• There are not big new customers on LN since some years.
• What is IBM doing with LN?
• Nobody invest on a non relational database.
• Could is the natural solution for replacing the need of replica (LN is the only replica system that really works).

Cobol will survive because:

• Cobol cannot be replaced easily in Banks or insurance companies without a big investment. If you know a bank that replaced it, please let me know, I’m interested to listen about the experience.
• On the other industries, it will die, but I will focus on bank and insurance industries.
• Some of the processes managed in a bank cannot be moved to other platforms: so much complex to be tested with real results, too expensive.
• I know some banks that tried to get rid of Cobol, After some years and some million €, they decided to improve their Cobol environment.
• They manage huge volume of data and transactions (some of them in real time).

Let’s see if when I read this post in ten years I’m right or wrong