Covid has stopped the tourism industry around the World. Right now so many local business around the world are deciding what is the right moment to re-open their businesses.
Background and purpose
The purpose of this article is to analyze how the decisions to come back to travel and visit the city of Seville (Spain) is being made in a volume that enables the local businesses to start up the reopening of their businesses. To forecast the tourism activity approaching Seville is the goal of this analysis.
If you are interested on this topic and have suggestions, please let me know.
This will not be an individual post, it’s going to be a series of posts.
The tourist
The “tourist” is the individual we are looking for. This individual has some general features that we will describe with respect the importance to the city of Seville.
- Origin: It’s mainly living in UK, Germany, France and Italy.
- The main way to travel is flying.
- Uses Internet to book travel: flight, hotel, other activities.
- Countries to add in future: China and US.
Relevant questions to be replied?
- What happens to people that travel with organized packages?
- How the last minute trips can be detected?
- How do we know when people from certain countries can travel abroad? For instance: UK scheduled in June.
Sequence of decisions done by the tourist:
Note that I have updated the “evolution” axis with the different mindsets the tourist should have.
The first question that nowadays people do when thinking about traveling is: Is safe to travel? Can I travel?
People probably do not ask themselves if “is safe to travel to Seville”, but to look for Seville as information could be a starting point when thinking to travel.
I have marked the 2 first lines I would like to analyze:
- Line #1: Is the tourist looking for the word “Seville” into google search?
- Line #2: Is people travelling?
Which data can help us to answer these questions?
To try to answer to these questions, I will check the data related to these questions, looking from different points of view, defining a set of thresholds and then check how close is the real situation from these thresholds.
Note: this is an initial set of KPIs, there will be more in future. The idea is that the KPIs are supported by secondary KPIs that confirms the correlation or that should make us to dig into the data and what is really happening.
Volume of searches of Seville in Google
KPI – Level 1: Number searches of term Sevilla, Seville, Séville, Siviglia.
The main countries that provides visitors to Seville are: UK, France, Germany and Italy. From overseas, China and US are the main ones, we will add these countries later on.
Source of data: google trends.
Volume of flights
KPI – Level 1: Number of commercial flights
The first level of flights to review is the total number of commercial flights around the world.
Source of data: flightsradar24
KPI – Level 2: Number of flights to cities of reference
The second level volume of flights I would like to review is the ones related to Madrid, Barcelona and Málaga. The reason is that these main Spanish cities are more important in terms of visitors than Seville, so we can compare with it.
Source of data: AENA.
Volume of visitors
KPI – Level 1: number of tourist visiting Spain by country of origin
This information is provided once the tourists have visited the country, depending of the origin. It’s the more accurate data I have found. This should confirm the trends of the other KPIs.
This data is offered by INE (Instituto Nacional de Estadística),
The report —–>>>> https://datastudio.google.com/s/oFOobj3-U8Q <<<<——-
Update July 2022
Flight radar chart updated: October 2021 it was the point where the number of flights met 2019 numbers.
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